Calculated account for imported methanol and olefins

The successful operation of China's coal-to-olefins demonstration project in August last year verified the feasibility of the methanol-to-olefin technology. Affected by this, the methanol-to-olefins project quickly became hot. Among these, a number of projects are planned to import methanol from abroad mainly in the Middle East. According to preliminary statistics by CCIN reporters, at present, domestic projects that plan to use imported methanol to obtain olefins include: Zhejiang Ningbo Haoyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. 1.8 million tons of methanol to make 600,000 tons of olefins under construction; Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is The project of 1.8 million tons of methanol for 600,000 tons of olefins invested and built by Jiaxing is being designed; the 3.6 million tons of methanol for 1.2 million tons of olefins invested by Jiangsu Shenghong Group in Lianyungang is undergoing EIA; Hong Kong Zhengda Energy Chemical Group Co., Ltd. invested 1.2 billion yuan The US dollar has also signed an agreement for a methanol-to-olefins project in Changzhou, Jiangsu; Dalian Dahua Fujia Co., Ltd. has 7.2 million tons of methanol to produce 2.4 million tons of olefins. The project is undergoing preliminary work. In addition, there are several companies in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places that have the intention and interest to use imported methanol to invest in the construction of olefins projects.

So, what is the significance of using imported methanol to make olefins? What are the risks? Is it competitive? Recently, some people in the industry analyzed it from different perspectives.

Economic account: Advantages of investment costs According to the CCIN reporter, the economics of imported methanol to olefins are reflected in the short process flow, short project construction cycle, and quick results. The main thing is the project investment province. A person in charge of Zhejiang, who asked not to be named, told CCIN that the olefin plant started from the import of methanol rather than starting from coal, saving a large investment. For example, the investment for a large-scale coal-to-olefins project in China is more than 15 billion yuan, while a private enterprise in Zhejiang uses imported methanol, and only uses less than half of its investment.

Specific to the cost of the product, it is understood that in the production cost of methanol to olefins project, the proportion of methanol raw materials costs up to 90%. Therefore, the price of methanol determines the economics of the project. Many experts interviewed by CCIN reporters have stated that in terms of the current price of methanol in the international market, the use of imported methanol to make olefins has a certain degree of economic efficiency.

Compared with domestic methanol and olefins. According to the CCIN reporter, the current price of imported methanol to the domestic market is 2200 to 2300 yuan/ton, which is 500 yuan/ton lower than the domestic methanol price.

Compared with domestic petroleum olefins. Tang Hongqing, a senior engineer of China National Synthetic Oil Engineering Co., Ltd., analyzed that if the imported CIF onshore can average 2,000 yuan/ton, the production cost of its olefins production will be about 7,000 yuan/ton, and the repayment, sales expense, and full cost will be counted. It is 8,000 to 8,500 yuan/ton. Domestic Sinopec and PetroChina have a large number of products, and their cost is considered as a comprehensive account. The cost of naphtha to olefins is 8,000 yuan/ton. Therefore, the cost of producing olefins from imported methanol is equal to or slightly higher than that of them.

Compared with the low-cost petroleum associated olefins in the Middle East. Gong Huajun, senior engineer of the Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning, told CCIN reporters that olefins in the Middle East are mostly produced with low-cost oil-associated gas. It is estimated that the CIFs for the transport of olefins to East China will be 4,000 to 5,000 yuan per ton, which is lower than that in China. However, due to inconvenient transportation, China's annual import of olefins is not large, mainly importing its downstream polyolefins, and there is no direct competition.

Experts pointed out that considering the market price and demand, using imported methanol to make olefins still has economic advantages.

Industry Structure Account: Helps to break the monopoly Some insiders say that the import of methanol to olefins is beneficial to China's energy structure. First of all, imported methanol is imported energy, which can break the monopoly of oil in China's industries. Second, from a global point of view, it is also possible to reduce the temperature of coal chemical industry to some extent.

Some experts believe that the import of methanol to olefins can be moderately developed in China's coastal areas, and focus on the development of high-end downstream products, so as to improve the domestic chemical industry chain is good. Gong Huajun introduced to the CCIN reporter that the methanol-to-olefin technology is now mature, imported methanol is cheap, and domestic olefins are in great demand. Naturally, companies want to try to produce. For chemical parks, ethylene and propylene are indispensable basic raw materials. However, some chemical parks in China do not currently have a refining and ethylene integration facility, and the olefins needed must rely on outsourcing. While olefins are hazardous chemicals, short-distance transportation can still be through pipelines, and long-distance transportation must pass through pressure equipment, which is costly and has limited capacity. Most of the coastal chemical parks are close to the port and have complete liquid chemical terminals and storage facilities. By accepting imported methanol from sea shipping, a separate methanol-to-olefin plant is built, which is a complementary option.

Hongyuan Securities' petrochemical industry analyst, Shigeru Shichai, told CCIN reporters that previously, domestic coastal chemical companies would even go to Central and Eastern China because they had no resources. If you can really use cheap imported methanol to make olefins, you can extend a lot of chemical products. This is good for domestic industries. In the Middle East, methanol can be used not only as an olefin, but also to develop high-end chemicals such as polyoxymethylene. By importing methanol-to-olefins projects along the coast, it is possible to use the chemical advantages of these areas and get close to the market, which is a good way to give full play to the comparative advantages of the Middle East and China. Moreover, using imported methanol to make olefins can also stabilize the relationship between China and the Middle East. This is very important for safeguarding our energy security.

The Asian Chemicals Consulting Company recently issued a report saying that the construction of a methanol-to-olefin plant through the import of methanol in coastal chemical parks will enable diversification of raw materials for chemical production companies that lack upstream crude oil resources.

According to Tang Hongqing, most of the naphtha-to-olefins production facilities in China's coastal refinery companies use imported crude oil or naphtha as raw materials. The degree of foreign oil dependence of China exceeded the 50% security warning line last year, and it rose to more than 52% in 2010. Therefore, using imported methanol to make olefins can be used as a supplement to olefin demand in the coastal areas.

In addition, the biggest industrial advantage is the ability to open up new olefin supply channels, change the previous situation in which the two major groups are dominating, and create a competitive situation. Some industry insiders believe that the current domestic olefins and other petrochemical products are mainly supplied by several major oil groups, and the import of methanol to olefins opens up new olefin supply channels. For example, Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.'s imported methanol-to-olefins first-phase project, which produces 300,000 tons of ethylene and 300,000 tons of propylene, will be directly used by companies in the China Chemical New Material (Jiaxing) Park, with 100,000 tons of by-products. It is also digested directly in Jiaxing City. While improving the chemical industry chain in Jiaxing Port Area, it also reduces the dependence of raw materials of local chemical companies on oil groups.

Risk account: Unable to control price fluctuations However, CCIN reporter learned that if you want to use imported methanol to make olefins, the risk should also be fully considered.

First, the unstable situation in the Middle East may affect the methanol supply.

According to an industry source who did not wish to be identified, the country with the most imports of methanol from the Middle East is Saudi Arabia and Iran. At present, the political turmoil in the Middle East has not yet affected the methanol exports of these two countries, but it has previously affected this. For example, this happened last year - the international community imposed sanctions on Iran, and Iran's methanol turned to China. China’s banks are reluctant to give domestic companies credit for importing methanol, which makes it difficult for companies to import.

Second, foreign companies are afraid to release their methanol exports to China because of concerns about anti-dumping from Chinese domestic methanol companies.

Recently, Wang Pearl, the assistant managing director of China’s largest methanol production and supplier in the United States, Messexia Asia Pacific, confirmed to the CCIN reporter that they had received some cooperation consultations on some Chinese methanol-to-olefins projects, but they are more cautious about the cooperation of these projects. Depending on the attitude of the government to the import of methanol to olefins projects. They worry that the increase in the amount of methanol exported to China will cause a new round of anti-dumping in the Chinese methanol industry. It is understood that in October last year, under the application of a methanol company, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China had conducted anti-dumping on methanol originating in Indonesia, Malaysia, and New Zealand.

Again, the risk of price fluctuations should also be considered.

Xin Chengqin, Technical Director of Coal Chemical Engineering at Wison Engineering (China) Co., Ltd., told CCIN that in recent years, the price of methanol in the international market has experienced irregular fluctuations. For example, in the second half of 2006, international methanol prices broke through 600 US dollars/ton, and then fell back to more than 200 US dollars/ton. By mid-2007, the spot price of methanol once again soared to 600 US dollars/ton.

Zheng Chunlin, an analyst at Asian Chemicals Consulting, said that due to the large demand for methanol from olefins projects, it may be more difficult to fully satisfy the supply of raw materials by relying solely on imported methanol. In order to reduce the dependence on imported methanol and increase the bargaining power, the imported methanol-to-olefins project may also consider purchasing part of domestic methanol.

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