Following the exchange rate reform hitting a new high in the middle of last Friday, the central bank’s price rose by 116 basis points against the US dollar yesterday, reaching 6.7509 yuan. Since the launch of the second exchange reform in June this year, the *** has appreciated by 1.17%, and the cumulative appreciation since the exchange rate reform has exceeded 20%.
It is worth noting that in the last four trading days, the central parity rate has risen by 400 points in a row, which has occurred when the major indexes such as the US dollar index and the euro have remained relatively stable. In the past month, the change in the middle price of *** against the US dollar was closely related to the performance of the US dollar index in the international market.
A member of a state-owned bank told reporters that the middle price of *** recently hit a new high after a series of consecutive corrections. This may be because the decision-makers intend to dispel the market's expectation of unilateral volatility, so they think that *** The trend of the middle price may be corrected again.
The market has little reaction to the consecutive high prices of ***. The above traders stated that there has been no need for too many foreign exchange settlements and sales transactions recently. Yesterday the *** against the US dollar closed at 6.7618 on the domestic spot market.
In the NDF (overseas non-deliverable forward market) market, the one-year USD/NDF price index was reported to be 6.6441, down from last week's closing price of 6.6555, indicating that overseas markets believe that *** will be against the US dollar after one year. The appreciation of 1.61%. The expectation of appreciation of the *** in the NDF market has significantly increased since last week.
Analysts believe that the newly released Chinese trade data should help reduce the pressure on the appreciation of ***. Last Friday’s data showed that China’s exports rose by 34.4% year-on-year in August and 32.9% after the seasonally adjusted increase, which was a slower-than-expected 38.1% increase. China’s trade surplus in August was US$ 20.03 billion, not only lower than the 287 in July. The billion US dollars is also far less than the 30 billion US dollars that economists expected.
Due to the correction of exports, analysts believe that the appreciation rate of *** against the U.S. dollar is expected to increase by a maximum of 1.0% to 1.5% year-on-year. The new exchange rate policy that can be expected in the future should be a further increase in the fluctuation of U.S. dollar against the U.S. dollar.