The most advanced indicator of cement demand: The area and amount of real estate sales decreased year-on-year, and negative growth for two consecutive months. Although the growth rate of new real estate starts has slightly decreased, it still maintains a rather strong high. Currently, there is no overall substantial decline in observed housing prices. Therefore, the loosening of short-term real estate policies is less likely than the introduction of more stringent policies.
Cement demand comparison index: piles, concrete, glass, steel, concrete machinery, excavator production in June monthly growth rate fell. The fall of concrete machinery and excavators means that the growth rate of construction volume in the future will continue to fall. In particular, the increase in the production volume of pipe piles means that the cement demand growth rate will continue to fall in the next 4 months, but the pipe piles in June will increase by 27% year-on-year. An increase of 37 percentage points means that the absolute amount of real estate cement demand will continue to increase.
In June, the growth rate of cement output fell to 15% in a single month, and the cumulative growth rate dropped to 17%. Judging from the preceding and comparative indicators mentioned above, we expect the cement output to fall back to around 13% throughout the year. This decline rate did not exceed expectations and was within our judgment. On the one hand, it was due to the previous year's base number, and the other was the weakening of new projects demanded by policy suppression. We still adhered to the view in the mid-term strategy report: Cement demand increased from 2010 to 2011. Speed ​​13%, 6% or so.
In terms of cement supply, the new investment plan for cement started to show negative growth for four consecutive months, reflecting the partial effect of the suspension of the new production line policy, which means that new production capacity will decline significantly in 2011. During the month of June, the cement investment growth rate dropped sharply to 2% in one month and 44% year-on-year. The monthly growth rate of cement equipment production fell back to 15% and fell by 25 percentage points year-on-year, which also means that the new cement production capacity will drop significantly after September.
New margin of supply and demand for cement: Stick to the judgment of 2010-2011 -1378 and 48.4 million tons in the strategy report. The longer the cement time is, the greater the opportunity is: the data observed in the middle of next year will show that there will be very little increase in capacity in 2012, while 2011 will be the first year of the 12th five-year period and 2012 will be the government transition year. The demand will maintain a positive growth until 2018. , elimination of backwardness will provide important marginal improvement support, the next year the economy will be upgraded again next year, when the reasonable PE16-24 multiples.
Nearly the time of the start of the secured housing operation in July was driven by the cyclical rebound of short-term cement stocks that did not reach 16 times.
Cement demand comparison index: piles, concrete, glass, steel, concrete machinery, excavator production in June monthly growth rate fell. The fall of concrete machinery and excavators means that the growth rate of construction volume in the future will continue to fall. In particular, the increase in the production volume of pipe piles means that the cement demand growth rate will continue to fall in the next 4 months, but the pipe piles in June will increase by 27% year-on-year. An increase of 37 percentage points means that the absolute amount of real estate cement demand will continue to increase.
In June, the growth rate of cement output fell to 15% in a single month, and the cumulative growth rate dropped to 17%. Judging from the preceding and comparative indicators mentioned above, we expect the cement output to fall back to around 13% throughout the year. This decline rate did not exceed expectations and was within our judgment. On the one hand, it was due to the previous year's base number, and the other was the weakening of new projects demanded by policy suppression. We still adhered to the view in the mid-term strategy report: Cement demand increased from 2010 to 2011. Speed ​​13%, 6% or so.
In terms of cement supply, the new investment plan for cement started to show negative growth for four consecutive months, reflecting the partial effect of the suspension of the new production line policy, which means that new production capacity will decline significantly in 2011. During the month of June, the cement investment growth rate dropped sharply to 2% in one month and 44% year-on-year. The monthly growth rate of cement equipment production fell back to 15% and fell by 25 percentage points year-on-year, which also means that the new cement production capacity will drop significantly after September.
New margin of supply and demand for cement: Stick to the judgment of 2010-2011 -1378 and 48.4 million tons in the strategy report. The longer the cement time is, the greater the opportunity is: the data observed in the middle of next year will show that there will be very little increase in capacity in 2012, while 2011 will be the first year of the 12th five-year period and 2012 will be the government transition year. The demand will maintain a positive growth until 2018. , elimination of backwardness will provide important marginal improvement support, the next year the economy will be upgraded again next year, when the reasonable PE16-24 multiples.
Nearly the time of the start of the secured housing operation in July was driven by the cyclical rebound of short-term cement stocks that did not reach 16 times.