In July 2010, the decline in the prices of industrial production materials slowed down. The price of production materials in circulation was down by 1.3% month-on-month, and the decrease was reduced by 1.3% from the previous month; the month-on-month increase was 7.7%, and the cumulative increase from January to July was 14.9% year-on-year. It is expected that the prices of major industrial production materials will fluctuate steadily in the third quarter.
I. Price of major industrial production materials in July
(a) The price of steel fell first and then rose. In July, the comprehensive average price of four kinds of steel products in the steel trading market of 22 cities across the country was RMB 4,334 per ton, a decrease of 4.7% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; the prices of rebar, wire rod, medium plate and cold-rolled sheet were 4048 per ton respectively. Yuan, 3960 yuan, 4178 yuan and 5149 yuan, respectively, decreased by 2.8%, 2.5%, 5.2% and 7.2% from the previous quarter. Among them, starting in mid-July, steel prices stopped falling and rebounded. Compared with the middle of July, the average price of four types of steel products rose by 7.2%. From the perspective of steel exports, steel output for the current month was 4.55 million tons, a decrease of 1.07 million tons from the previous month and a decrease of 390,000 tons from May.
(II) The price of iron ore dropped. In July, the prices of iron concentrate powder produced in Tangshan, Hebei, and Fushun, Liaoning, were respectively 1,076 yuan and 911 yuan per ton, which was a decrease of 5.4% and 6.8% respectively from the previous month, but still rose by 39.2% and 41.4% year-on-year respectively; The spot price of 63.5% of iron ore Qingdao Port was RMB 1,040 per ton, a decrease of 8.2% from the previous month and an increase of 50.4% year-on-year.
(C) The price of non-ferrous metals rose from down to up. In July, the price of non-ferrous metals in the international market rose and domestic companies increased the overhaul. As a result, the prices of major non-ferrous metals in the country have risen from low to high. The prices of electrolytic copper and electrolytic aluminum of Shanghai Huatong Nonferrous Metals Spot Trading Center were RMB 54073 and RMB 14,765 per ton respectively, up by 2.5% and 2.3% respectively from the previous quarter, up by 28.6% and 6.5% respectively year-on-year.
(d) Cement prices are basically stable. According to statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center, in July, the price of 42.5 ordinary Portland cement in 36 large and medium-sized cities nationwide was 408.5 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.5% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.
In addition, the coal price dropped steadily. At the end of July, the thermal coal price of 5,500 kcal of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port was 745 yuan per ton, which was a 2% drop from the end of June and was 29.5% higher than the same period of last year. Chemical prices remained generally weak, and polyethylene ( The average price of 7042 grades in July was 9,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.5% from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%. However, due to the increase in raw material costs in the upstream, the price of caustic soda (30% diaphragm) was 500 yuan per ton, which was a 6.4% increase from the previous quarter. Rose 8.7%.
The above situation shows that the role of the national macro-control policies has gradually emerged, the market has entered a new period of adjustment, the industrial production materials are shifting towards a balance between supply and demand, prices have stabilized, and they are conducive to the healthy development of the industry and stabilize inflation expectations.
Second, the main industrial production price trends
Although the price of steel and other industrial production materials began to rebound in mid-July, overall, the global economic recovery has been on a tortuous road. The national macroeconomic policies and the control policies for real estate and high energy-consuming industries will remain stable. The third quarter industrial production data is expected. There will not be major changes in the fundamentals of market supply and demand, and prices will generally fluctuate.
(a) Steel. In the case of a decline in steel exports, domestic real estate control policies continue to adhere to and gradually appear, and the domestic steel production capacity is lenient, the third quarter of steel prices is difficult to rise significantly. On the other hand, high raw material costs and the country's efforts to eliminate backward production capacity will support steel prices to a certain extent. Based on the comprehensive analysis, the steel prices in the third quarter showed a general trend of slight shocks.
(b) Non-ferrous metals. The financial properties of non-ferrous metals are strong. Under the circumstances that the global economic recovery has suffered a setback and financial market risks have increased, the price fluctuations in the international market may intensify and have an impact on the domestic market. From the perspective of domestic supply and demand, copper and aluminum consumption will enter the peak season and demand will increase. However, the market supply is relatively abundant. Comprehensive analysis is expected that domestic nonferrous metal prices will fluctuate at current prices in the third quarter.
In addition, it is expected that the prices of cement and coal will remain stable overall in the third quarter; the price of chemical products will be affected by fluctuations in oil prices in the international market. Under the circumstances of slowing demand growth and overcapacity, prices will remain low and fluctuate.