Summary "US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump win over Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, won the 2016 US presidential election!" Lasted nearly six months of the campaign finally came to the big screen! ! ! Let’s not say that Uncle Trump is going to...
"United States Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 US presidential election!" The election campaign that lasted nearly half a year finally came to a close! ! !
Not to mention the wonders of Uncle Trump, or whether he will become the first unreasonable US president in history. These are not the focus of today’s discussion. We are concerned about:
Trump has been elected, then what will be affected by China's manufacturing industry?
Not to mention the wonders of Uncle Trump, or whether he will become the first unreasonable US president in history. These are not the focus of today’s discussion. We are concerned about:
Trump has been elected, then what will be affected by China's manufacturing industry?
Will he play the Chinese manufacturing industry?
Why is Xiaobian asking this question? That is because, in his election campaign, Trump has repeatedly proposed to take Sino-US trade to bring the production opportunities such as "Apple" products back to the United States to promote employment. "Get the work from China." Come back, to take advantage of the blue-collar workers in the US manufacturing industry, especially the older whites. And they are one of the main forces that helped Trump win the US election.
So let's first take a look at what Trump has said about China and China.
"Our trade with China is very unfair. Our trade deficit with China this year will reach 505 billion US dollars!"
"I have a lot of friends, they are great manufacturers, they want to enter the Chinese market. They can't get in. China won't let them in!"
Global warming is China's concocted to deal with the United States. Trump also said that the concept of global warming was concocted by China in order to make the US manufacturing industry not competitive.
"They are putting us to death, we have to impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports!"
Trump made such remarks many times during debates, rallies, and appearances on television. Given Trump’s consistent "big mouth" style, can these statements for canvassing be truly translated into US foreign trade policy, It is really hard to judge now.
However, we can actually check Trump's point of view from some data and other aspects, and analyze why Uncle Trump wants to throw these remarks:
1. About the trade deficit The US trade deficit with China was $338 billion last year. There is no reason to think that the 2016 deficit will change as much as Trump said (Trump seems to have a trade deficit between the US and China, Contrasted with the US total trade deficit in 2014, $505 billion is the initial reported total deficit.)
It is correct that the United States imports from China much higher than the core point of exports. In a slightly different sense, US imports from China increased by $416 billion in 2015 compared to 1999. During the same period, US exports to China increased by $145 billion.
But despite this, many economists believe that the trade balance should not be a simple scorecard, that countries with trade deficits are losers, and countries with trade surpluses are winners.
2. Did Chinese manufacturing really grab the work of Americans?
The team led by MIT economist David Autor published a research report earlier this year called "China Shockwave: Learned from the Adjustment of the Labor Market in the Great Changes in Trade", which is also seen as a support According to this study, from the 1999-2011, US imports from China caused a loss of 2.4 million jobs in the United States. The Autor team also assessed the direct impact of China's low-end manufacturing industry on the salary levels of 700 urban industrial districts in the United States. The calculations show that in areas where China's competition is more severe, the average annual salary of workers is affected by China. The lighter area is $549 lower.
For this, we don’t have to use Xiaobian to question it. See how the US domestic media commented:
PhilLevy, a senior researcher at the Chicago Board of Global Affairs, wrote on the website of Foreign Policy magazine that the Autor team pointed out in the study that "the industry with the fastest growth in China's imports, the stronger the impact on American workers," but it cannot be justified. “China’s imports have caused workers to lose their jobsâ€; he also said that some scholars have also suggested that technological advancement and increased domestic competition in the United States are also important factors that cannot be ignored in the blue-collar unemployment problem. Another point of Levy's view is that Autor's team has adopted a rather biased research direction: focus on China and ignore the rest of the world. Because it leads to the disappearance of US manufacturing jobs, not only Chinese imports, but also imports from other regions.
Levy pointed out that even if the United States really imposes heavy taxes on Chinese imports, multinational companies will choose to invest in other places such as Vietnam and will not choose to return to the United States. The example is long gone. In 2009, the Obama administration decided to impose a three-year punitive tariff on all cars and light truck tires imported from China. The 2012 Peterson Institute for International Economics research shows that the big winner of this policy is other tire exporters outside of China – they took the opportunity to sell a lot of tires to the United States. And American consumers must buy tire products at a higher price, which causes jobs created in the tire industry to be offset by jobs that disappear in the retail industry.
CNN also questioned whether the "China Shockwave" reflects the reality. Since 2000, the US manufacturing industry has indeed lost 5 million jobs. However, the role of technological factors in this can not be ignored, especially the widespread use of large-scale automated machines, and the tendency of robots to increasingly replace common technical jobs.
Did you see it? It’s very biased to blame the Chinese for robbing the Americans!
3. Is the Chinese business environment unfair to American companies?
According to Trump, his "great manufacturer friends" believe that it is now impossible to do business in China. Because of the various restrictions imposed by the Chinese government, they believe that these restrictions are arbitrary and unpredictable, and are highly beneficial to domestic companies, so that the actual situation is that enterprises either cannot enter or enter and cannot make money in China. The Chinese government uses anti-monopoly law enforcement to help domestic businesses; the government subsidizes exports with tax rebates and other practices; automakers can only build factories in China as part of joint ventures and face high tariffs on attempts to sell American-made cars .
Regarding the fairness of the business environment, Xiao Bian feels a bit sloppy, not to mention that China has always treated the companies of the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries equally. To say that anti-monopoly law enforcement, China is the biggest victim:
As of 2013, China has accepted 692 foreign trade remedy investigations since joining the WTO. From 1995 to 2010, China has become the country with the most anti-dumping investigations in the world for 16 consecutive years.
Recently, everyone knows that when China is becoming more and more proficient in anti-dumping investigations, the US-led TPP will have to re-enact international trade rules and change its gameplay. However, this is still the US-led "Western Club" to restrict China. Waiting for the humbleness of developing countries!
4. Is global warming concocted by China to deal with the United States?
Uncle Trump’s assertion is even more ridiculous!
On issues such as environmental protection and climate change, China is the one that is being constrained everywhere. This is a naked fight!
At several climate summits, the “Western Clubâ€, which has been headed by the United States, has shirked its responsibilities and imposed strict requirements on China’s greenhouse gas emissions, requiring China to assume greater share and responsibility in the greenhouse effect control. The "Western-led Western developed countries, which are headed by the United States, have been carrying the shackles of China and other countries in the post-development stage!"
From this point of view, Trump is still consistently unreliable! !
But there is one point worthy of our attention. In fact, whether it is Hillary or Trump, no matter who is on the stage, manufacturing is really a battleground for China and the United States!
For this, we don't have to be arrogant, we still have to talk about the data:
In 2007, China’s industrial production was only 62% of the United States, and by 2011, China’s industrial production was already 120% of the United States.
In 2013, one of Korea's most important think tanks, the Korea Trade Association International Trade Research Institute released the export statistics of industrial products based on customs codes. The results show that in 2013, the world's industrial products occupied the first product category in China. There are 1,538 species, the second is 733 in Germany, and the third is 550 in the United States.
In 2013, China's total import and export trade reached 3.87 trillion US dollars, surpassing the United States and becoming the world's largest trader of goods.
Judging from the development situation of China's manufacturing industry over the past few years, Xiao Bian feels that we are really not afraid of the Sino-US manufacturing dispute!
Why is Xiaobian asking this question? That is because, in his election campaign, Trump has repeatedly proposed to take Sino-US trade to bring the production opportunities such as "Apple" products back to the United States to promote employment. "Get the work from China." Come back, to take advantage of the blue-collar workers in the US manufacturing industry, especially the older whites. And they are one of the main forces that helped Trump win the US election.
So let's first take a look at what Trump has said about China and China.
"Our trade with China is very unfair. Our trade deficit with China this year will reach 505 billion US dollars!"
"I have a lot of friends, they are great manufacturers, they want to enter the Chinese market. They can't get in. China won't let them in!"
Global warming is China's concocted to deal with the United States. Trump also said that the concept of global warming was concocted by China in order to make the US manufacturing industry not competitive.
"They are putting us to death, we have to impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports!"
Trump made such remarks many times during debates, rallies, and appearances on television. Given Trump’s consistent "big mouth" style, can these statements for canvassing be truly translated into US foreign trade policy, It is really hard to judge now.
However, we can actually check Trump's point of view from some data and other aspects, and analyze why Uncle Trump wants to throw these remarks:
1. About the trade deficit The US trade deficit with China was $338 billion last year. There is no reason to think that the 2016 deficit will change as much as Trump said (Trump seems to have a trade deficit between the US and China, Contrasted with the US total trade deficit in 2014, $505 billion is the initial reported total deficit.)
It is correct that the United States imports from China much higher than the core point of exports. In a slightly different sense, US imports from China increased by $416 billion in 2015 compared to 1999. During the same period, US exports to China increased by $145 billion.
But despite this, many economists believe that the trade balance should not be a simple scorecard, that countries with trade deficits are losers, and countries with trade surpluses are winners.
2. Did Chinese manufacturing really grab the work of Americans?
The team led by MIT economist David Autor published a research report earlier this year called "China Shockwave: Learned from the Adjustment of the Labor Market in the Great Changes in Trade", which is also seen as a support According to this study, from the 1999-2011, US imports from China caused a loss of 2.4 million jobs in the United States. The Autor team also assessed the direct impact of China's low-end manufacturing industry on the salary levels of 700 urban industrial districts in the United States. The calculations show that in areas where China's competition is more severe, the average annual salary of workers is affected by China. The lighter area is $549 lower.
For this, we don’t have to use Xiaobian to question it. See how the US domestic media commented:
PhilLevy, a senior researcher at the Chicago Board of Global Affairs, wrote on the website of Foreign Policy magazine that the Autor team pointed out in the study that "the industry with the fastest growth in China's imports, the stronger the impact on American workers," but it cannot be justified. “China’s imports have caused workers to lose their jobsâ€; he also said that some scholars have also suggested that technological advancement and increased domestic competition in the United States are also important factors that cannot be ignored in the blue-collar unemployment problem. Another point of Levy's view is that Autor's team has adopted a rather biased research direction: focus on China and ignore the rest of the world. Because it leads to the disappearance of US manufacturing jobs, not only Chinese imports, but also imports from other regions.
Levy pointed out that even if the United States really imposes heavy taxes on Chinese imports, multinational companies will choose to invest in other places such as Vietnam and will not choose to return to the United States. The example is long gone. In 2009, the Obama administration decided to impose a three-year punitive tariff on all cars and light truck tires imported from China. The 2012 Peterson Institute for International Economics research shows that the big winner of this policy is other tire exporters outside of China – they took the opportunity to sell a lot of tires to the United States. And American consumers must buy tire products at a higher price, which causes jobs created in the tire industry to be offset by jobs that disappear in the retail industry.
CNN also questioned whether the "China Shockwave" reflects the reality. Since 2000, the US manufacturing industry has indeed lost 5 million jobs. However, the role of technological factors in this can not be ignored, especially the widespread use of large-scale automated machines, and the tendency of robots to increasingly replace common technical jobs.
Did you see it? It’s very biased to blame the Chinese for robbing the Americans!
3. Is the Chinese business environment unfair to American companies?
According to Trump, his "great manufacturer friends" believe that it is now impossible to do business in China. Because of the various restrictions imposed by the Chinese government, they believe that these restrictions are arbitrary and unpredictable, and are highly beneficial to domestic companies, so that the actual situation is that enterprises either cannot enter or enter and cannot make money in China. The Chinese government uses anti-monopoly law enforcement to help domestic businesses; the government subsidizes exports with tax rebates and other practices; automakers can only build factories in China as part of joint ventures and face high tariffs on attempts to sell American-made cars .
Regarding the fairness of the business environment, Xiao Bian feels a bit sloppy, not to mention that China has always treated the companies of the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries equally. To say that anti-monopoly law enforcement, China is the biggest victim:
As of 2013, China has accepted 692 foreign trade remedy investigations since joining the WTO. From 1995 to 2010, China has become the country with the most anti-dumping investigations in the world for 16 consecutive years.
Recently, everyone knows that when China is becoming more and more proficient in anti-dumping investigations, the US-led TPP will have to re-enact international trade rules and change its gameplay. However, this is still the US-led "Western Club" to restrict China. Waiting for the humbleness of developing countries!
4. Is global warming concocted by China to deal with the United States?
Uncle Trump’s assertion is even more ridiculous!
On issues such as environmental protection and climate change, China is the one that is being constrained everywhere. This is a naked fight!
At several climate summits, the “Western Clubâ€, which has been headed by the United States, has shirked its responsibilities and imposed strict requirements on China’s greenhouse gas emissions, requiring China to assume greater share and responsibility in the greenhouse effect control. The "Western-led Western developed countries, which are headed by the United States, have been carrying the shackles of China and other countries in the post-development stage!"
From this point of view, Trump is still consistently unreliable! !
But there is one point worthy of our attention. In fact, whether it is Hillary or Trump, no matter who is on the stage, manufacturing is really a battleground for China and the United States!
For this, we don't have to be arrogant, we still have to talk about the data:
In 2007, China’s industrial production was only 62% of the United States, and by 2011, China’s industrial production was already 120% of the United States.
In 2013, one of Korea's most important think tanks, the Korea Trade Association International Trade Research Institute released the export statistics of industrial products based on customs codes. The results show that in 2013, the world's industrial products occupied the first product category in China. There are 1,538 species, the second is 733 in Germany, and the third is 550 in the United States.
In 2013, China's total import and export trade reached 3.87 trillion US dollars, surpassing the United States and becoming the world's largest trader of goods.
Judging from the development situation of China's manufacturing industry over the past few years, Xiao Bian feels that we are really not afraid of the Sino-US manufacturing dispute!
A/C Room Thermostat,Electric Water Heater Thermostat,Freezer Defrost Thermostat,Thermostat For Incubator
LONG TERM ELEC. CO., LTD , https://www.longterm-hvac.com