1. VB2 (riboflavin) industry development overview:
VB2 (riboflavin) is mainly used in the feed and food additive industry, in which the feed additive accounts for about 65% of the total output, and the feed grade VB2 content is generally 80%. The food is mainly used as an additive for foods such as flour. A small amount (<5%) is used for medicine.
Figure 1, VB2 downstream distribution
The global demand for vitamin B2 is about 7,000 tons, with an annual growth rate of about 3-5%. Due to the high proportion of feed use, there is a certain periodicity. The world's major manufacturers include 4,800 tons of Guangji Pharmaceutical (Wuxuan 2300 + Mengzhou 2500), BASF (1,500 tons) and DSM (DSM) 2000 tons. The capacity of the three companies has exceeded 80% of global production capacity and has overcapacity. Shanghai Disino also has a small amount of capacity for export.
Figure 2. VB2 main capacity distribution in 2010 (tons)
2, VB2 historical price review:
In 2007, the price of VB2 skyrocketed due to the suspension of production at the BASF factory in South Korea. The average monthly price reached US$75/kg (the short order appeared over US$100/kg). However, the good times did not last long. With the resumption of production of BASF, the price of VB2 began to decline. At present, the average export price of VB2 in China is about US$27/kg, which is basically maintained at a relatively stable level.
In addition to Guangji, domestic VB2 production enterprises mainly include Disino, Shandong Enbei, Hebei Shengxue, Ningxia Qiyuan and so on. However, exports are mainly dominated by Guangji and Dessino, with market shares of 75% and 8% respectively. Other companies are in sleep production capacity. When the price of VB2 is low, most of them are in production/semi-discontinuation. Only a few companies in the market have quoted prices. When the price of the product rises, these companies start to produce and quote. Due to economies of scale and technological advantages, Guangji costs about 110 yuan/kg; while the cost of sleep capacity is higher, generally 140 yuan/kg.
Figure 3, China's VB2 export volume and price over the years (unit: ton, US dollar / kg)
3, VB2 future price outlook:
According to customs export data, in March 2013, China's VB2 and its derivatives exported 173 tons, down 1.06% year-on-year and up 17.56% from the previous month. The domestic VB2 price in April was 135 yuan/kg, up 0.75% from the previous month. Since Guangji Pharmaceutical has raised its domestic sales price of riboflavin products to more than 180 yuan, it has driven the VB2 market price to rise slightly, but since then the price has been in a slight fluctuation, due to the low barriers to entry of VB2, sleep production capacity Larger, it is expected that the subsequent price will remain volatile.
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