China's machine tool orders decline, obvious structural adjustment is unacceptable

"In July and August, our orders were only one-fourth of that in March and April." "The amount of orders is indeed lower than that of the first half of the year. Now the main assault is the original contract. I think the country will not take measures. There will be a big downturn."   According to the June manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) released by many countries around the world, the global manufacturing trend is tending to slow down, while the manufacturing PMI in some countries is below the watershed of 50%. The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index released by China's Logistics and Purchasing Federation in July was 50.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the economic development showed a steady correction. The second half of the year is more or less similar to the second half of 2008. It seems that economist Lang Xianping’s remarks about the winter of manufacturing have not yet disappeared. In 2009, China’s machine tool industry recovered strongly and strengthened again. However, after experiencing a 40% increase in 2010 and a high level in the first half of 2011, the industry's weakening situation has already emerged. Machine tool is the parent machine of equipment manufacturing industry. Due to the lag of statistical data, data analysis can not reflect the decline of production and sales growth rate in time. Therefore, many people in the industry believe that the production of the machine tool industry in the first half of the year is actually the order task at the end of last year or the beginning of the year. The worry will really affect the growth of the machine tool industry in the second half. According to statistics, from January to July, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 15.9% year-on-year, higher than the national industrial growth rate of 1.6 percentage points. In July, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 13.5% year-on-year, lower than the national industrial growth rate of 0.5 percentage points. For the first time, it is lower than the national industrial added value average. It is no wonder that the general manager of Shifeng Group said at the first half of the company’s summary meeting in early July: “Maybe July will be the hardest month of the year.” In fact, agricultural machinery is still good in terms of data growth, while others like cars The growth rate of industrial and engineering machinery is narrowing. For example, according to the data of the China Machinery Industry Federation, the production and sales of automobiles continued to cool from January to July, and the growth of automobiles was 3.99% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 0.98 percentage points from the previous month. Due to the impact of the automotive industry on machine tools, many companies are also concerned about this. Qinchuan Development mentioned in the semi-annual report that since May and June, the company's orders have been declining year-on-year and month-on-month, and the momentum of high-end operations may change since last year. Qinchuan Machine Tool Group staff said that in July, due to the company's adequate orders in the first half of the year, production was still relatively busy at the time, but the group's tool factory orders in the second half of the year have been sharply reduced. According to the tool market reaction, it is necessary to precede the experience of the whole machine. He believes that the market performance in the second half of the year will not be as prominent as in the first half of the year. Weihai Huadong CNC, due to the impact of current policies on high-speed rail equipment, Huadong CNC only sold one high-speed railway CNC gantry machine tool in the first half of the year, while sales in the same period last year. According to the current form, it is difficult to make a big change in the second half of the year. Due to the structural adjustment in 2010 and the first half of this year, the general machine tool market continued to improve, which slowed down the steps of the overall product structure adjustment of the industry. At the same time, it also partially abandoned the ordinary machine tool market and resolutely carried out product adjustments. Is the behavior "excessive?" According to the statistics of China Machinery Industry Federation, in the first half of the year, CNC metal cutting machine tools increased by 44.99%. In the machine tool products, the output growth rate of CNC gold-cutting machine tools and numerical control devices is obviously faster than that of ordinary machine tools, and the numerical control rate continues to increase. In the first half of the economic operation of the machinery industry, Cai Weici also said that some new changes in the first half of the year deserve everyone's attention, that is, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the industry continues to accelerate, and the growth of production, sales and profits continues. Slowly, the growth rate of new orders has dropped, the cost pressure of enterprises has risen remarkably, and the contradiction of oversupply has shown signs of intensification, which highlights the urgency of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading. Returning to the machine tool industry, it is reported that in the past two months, some large machine tool companies have accumulated the inventory of ordinary machine tools. In 2008, the machine tool industry also had a similar situation. Wu Bolin, executive vice president of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, said that the inventory of various enterprises generally increased, with an estimated increase of about 20% year-on-year, and individual pioneer companies reached 60%. Perhaps it was because of the experience, so I was even more afraid. The so-called "one bite by a snake, ten years of fear of a well rope." Many companies are worried that the situation will get worse and worse in the future. In this regard, after all, there is no one-day red, and the reduction in demand is also a matter of reason. First of all, the demand for machine tools mainly comes from two aspects: one is the pulling of investment projects (referred to as new construction); the second is that machine tool users want to increase their own production capacity. As we all know, in the past few years, the output value of the machine tool industry has maintained a relatively high growth. Although there was a short-term trough in 2008, it rebounded strongly. In 2010, the machine tool industry completed a total industrial output value of 553.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. This is indeed a bit overheated and not normal. Perhaps I have been used to the days of high-speed growth and “money-making”, forgetting the regularity of the economic cycle, and some can't adapt. I am nervous and anxious. This can be understood, but calm down and think about it. It is impossible to maintain a long-term growth in any industry. Some fluctuations are normal. Due to factors such as rising raw material prices, RMB appreciation, export restrictions, and rising labor costs in some factories in the South, the reduction in demand for machine tools is caused by the current situation and the fact that companies are unable to change, and we can do It is to adjust the industrial structure and product structure according to market demand. The statistics of the association have shown that the growth of CNC metal cutting machine tools is significantly higher than that of ordinary machine tools. In fact, economical CNC machine tools are relatively low-end in terms of efficiency, automation, function and accuracy. However, the steps for mass production of ordinary machine tools by various companies have not stopped. It is now a matter of urgency to reduce the output of low-end products and to sound the alarm of structural adjustment in a timely manner.  

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