The complicated external economic environment is about to pass in 2011. The trend of steel prices is quite complicated this year: the import price of ore has reached a new high before the third quarter, but it still failed to push the steel price up; the national tightening policy almost exceeded everyone's expectations, real estate The policy of regulation and control is unprecedented and continues. According to demand analysis, PMI shows that manufacturing demand is still slowing further, production, new orders and export orders index have fallen back, while the company's raw material inventory and finished goods inventory have been further increasing, especially the finished goods inventory continues to hit new highs. It shows that the terminal consumption power is insufficient. Affected by the big environment, the steel market continues to promote transformation for development, while downstream, subject to macroeconomic policies, people's livelihood, etc., relatively more stringent, more stringent. In 2012, for the downstream, steel is particularly cautious.
At present, it is an indisputable fact that China's steel industry is operating in a "small profit" state. The growth rate of steel demand at home and abroad has gradually slowed down, and the demand for steel products in China has gradually narrowed. This situation will continue for some time due to the current economic environment. In this case, the industry is more concerned about the changes in market demand for some key steel products. According to the "12th Five-Year Plan for Development of the Iron and Steel Industry", by 2015, the consumption of key steel products in China will reach 750 million tons. This winter's winter storage is late, but the magnitude is still relatively small compared with previous years. Businesses generally said that they are still waiting to see the market. The demand will be warmer in the coming year, the market will ease, and then the big moves will be made. Then, in 2012, what is the demand for steel in the downstream steel industry, can it be “respected by all expectations†to drive steel prices? The author tries to make a corresponding evaluation from the following downstream angles (real estate cars, machinery, electrical appliances, ships) for reference only.
Key demand for real estate: increased proportion of high-strength steel bars
Since the beginning of 2011, the state has achieved remarkable results in the real estate control policy. The real estate market has gradually eased, and the growth rate of real estate industry investment and new construction area has dropped significantly, but it has remained at a high level. Despite this, more than 10 million sets of affordable housing have started, which has guaranteed the consumption demand for residential construction to a certain extent. In 2012, the state will not relax the regulation of real estate, and real estate developers face high inventory and greater debt repayment pressure, real estate investment will be significantly reduced, commercial housing sales and construction area growth will continue to slow down, but the guarantee Housing construction will still be a bright spot. Many of the 10 million affordable housing units started in 2011 will be completed in 2012, plus the new construction in 2012. In 2012, there will be about 18 million sets of affordable housing. The real estate construction area and completed area will continue to grow, but there will be no significant growth in previous years.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry†clearly states that at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the proportion of high-strength threaded steel bars of 400 MPa and above should exceed 80%. The "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue (2011)" has been formally implemented, and it is clearly proposed to eliminate Grade II reinforced steel bars and promote the use of Grade III and above strength steel bars. 2012 is the second year of the implementation of this policy. It will impose restrictions on the production of Grade II steel bars by steel companies. Therefore, in 2012, the proportion of high-strength steel bars in the real estate industry will increase significantly. In addition, China's infrastructure construction is also a large market for construction steel. For example, water tanks, dams and other basic buildings must use high-strength threaded steel bars. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China still needs to speed up the construction of municipal public infrastructure, and it will also exert a pulling effect on the demand for high-strength steel.
Key demand in the automotive industry: increased demand for high-strength, corrosion-resistant automotive panels
In 2011, the automobile industry was affected by policies and the economic environment. The growth rate of production and sales dropped sharply compared with the previous year. From January to November 2011, the production and sales volume of automobiles was 16.7283 million and 16.815 million respectively, up 2.00% and 2.56% respectively, and the growth rate continued to slow down compared with the previous 10 months. For the whole year, the production and sales volume of automobiles in 2011 should be about 3% higher than the same period of the previous year.
In 2012, macroeconomic regulation and control remained tight, GDP growth rate showed a slow downward trend, and instability and uncertainties were increasing. Therefore, the automobile market in 2012 is not optimistic, and automobile production and sales may maintain a growth rate of 3% to 5%. However, in view of China's economic development level has reached 4,000 US dollars per capita, and began to fully enter the automotive society, optimistic that China's automobile production and sales in 2012 will be better than in 2011.
In recent years, the automobile industry has put forward higher requirements for improving the car's corrosion resistance and service life while improving the safety, energy saving and comfort of the whole vehicle. These have become important indicators for measuring the quality of automobiles. One of the important ways to improve the corrosion resistance of the car body is to replace the non-galvanized steel plate with galvanized steel sheets. The inner plates, outer plates and support structures of high-grade cars are all galvanized sheets. In addition, the light weight of automobiles that has been pursued for a long time will increase the demand for high-strength cold-rolled sheets for automobiles. The application of foreign high-strength steel plates is common, but domestically developed models, regardless of the high-strength steel application strength level or the proportion of use, have a large gap with foreign countries. This is also the main focus of China's steel companies to develop automotive steel.
Key requirements of the mechanical general parts industry: the performance requirements of the variety are greatly improved
Key steel demand varieties: bearing steel, gear steel, alloy spring steel, die steel
The mechanical general parts industry is one of the important sub-sectors of the machinery industry. It includes the basic components that make up various types of mechanical products, such as fasteners, gears, chain drives, springs, powder metallurgy parts, transmission couplings, hydraulic parts, Seals pneumatic parts, bearings, etc., are the foundation of the mechanical industry. From January to October 2011, the economic operation of the mechanical general-purpose parts industry showed a situation of “before high and then lowâ€, but in general, the operation was still relatively stable. The sales value in 2011 is expected to be more than 240 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Due to the wide range of parts and components industry, although the development of each major and enterprise is not balanced, the overall development is relatively stable. It is expected that there will be no ups and downs in 2012, and it will remain basically stable. It may be high and low, and the whole industry is expected. Production and sales increased by 9% to 11%.
At present, the production equipment level of the general parts industry has been close to that of foreign countries, but there is still a big gap between the products and the foreign advanced level. The main reason is that there is a gap in the quality level of raw materials, mainly in the short life of steel materials and large heat treatment deformation. . In 2011, the steel consumption of machinery general parts industry was about 15.5 million tons, including 10.2 million tons of fasteners, 3.6 million tons of gears, 1.5 million tons of chains and more than 200,000 tons of springs. It is estimated that in 2012, the mechanical general parts industry will consume 17 million tons of steel, including 11 million tons of steel for fasteners, 4 million tons of gears, 1.6 million tons of chains and more than 200,000 tons of springs.
The main types of steel are bearing steel, gear steel, alloy spring steel, die steel, etc., and the performance requirements are greatly improved.
Key requirements of the electrical and electronic industry: upgrade to the direction of “high strength, high toughness, corrosion resistance and pressure resistanceâ€
Key steel grades: silicon steel sheet, steel plate for high pressure vessel, high pressure boiler tube for power station
Since the beginning of 2011, the country's high demand for electricity has slowed down steadily from quarter to quarter, and the power supply and demand situation is generally tight. From January to October 2011, China's power generation equipment output increased by 17.21% year-on-year, down by 3.59 percentage points from January to September. The output growth rate of hydro-generator units, steam turbine generators and wind turbines has declined, especially for wind turbines. Due to the influence of state approval, the output decline trend is obvious. In a certain period of time, the situation of tight supply and demand of electricity will continue. By 2015 and 2020, China's total social power consumption will reach 6.3 trillion kWh and 8.3 trillion kWh respectively, and the task of power construction is arduous.
In 2012, the electrical and electronic industry was still based on steady development. However, due to the acceleration of agricultural power transformation and the start of UHV follow-up projects, coupled with the adjustment of the “low-cost bidding†policy, the demand for power transmission and transformation equipment manufacturing in the electrical industry It is expected to be better than 2011, but the pressure of over-expansion of the industry's production capacity is very heavy, and it is difficult to ease in the short term, so the difficulty of the industry's low efficiency is still difficult to ease. It is estimated that the total output value of China's electrical industry will achieve a growth rate of around 20% in 2012.
In the future, China's large-scale motors still have a large demand for high-grade non-oriented electrical steel. It is estimated that by 2020, China's total wind power installed capacity will reach 230 million kilowatts, equivalent to 13 Three Gorges power stations and 200 thermal power plants, and the total power generation capacity can reach 444.9 billion kWh. Compared with 2011, the growth rate of steel for power generation equipment will decline in 2012, and the growth rate of steel for transmission and distribution equipment will accelerate. The structural adjustment of the electrical industry has been further accelerated, driving the steel products to upgrade to the direction of “high strength, high toughness, corrosion resistance and pressure resistanceâ€. In the future, thermal power construction will continue to be the mainstream of development. Thermal power construction is mainly to develop high-efficiency and high-parameter supercritical and ultra-supercritical thermal power units. The key pressure-bearing components of thermal power plant boilers mainly include water-cooled walls, superheaters, reheaters, headers and pipelines. These pressure-bearing components are operated under relatively harsh working conditions and are important parts for the design and selection of steel.
In order to save energy, reduce CO2 emissions, and meet environmental protection requirements, large-capacity, high-parameter (high-temperature, high-pressure) ultra-supercritical units represent the future development trend of power station boilers, and with the development of ultra-supercritical units, Drive and urgently need the development and support of new products and new materials for high-pressure boiler tubes.
Key demand in the shipbuilding industry: demand for high-strength ship plates is stable
Key steel varieties: high-strength shipbuilding board
Since the beginning of 2011, due to factors such as the European debt crisis and the downgrade of the US credit rating, the amount of shipbuilding completion has increased month by month, but the number of new ship starts has declined, and the demand for shipbuilding steel has decreased month by month. According to the China Shipbuilding Industry Association, the difficulty of receiving orders in the shipping industry in 2012 will not be reversed. The turnover of new ships will decline further than in 2011, and the shipbuilding industry will enter a more difficult period.
With the implementation of large-scale ships and international safety and environmental protection regulations, the use of ordinary Class A plates will gradually decrease, and the use of high-strength plates will gradually increase. From the data point of view, the proportion of bulk carriers and container ships in ships delivered from 2011 to 2012 is still over 80%. Generally speaking, bulk carriers and oil tankers (A32~A36) have a higher proportion of use, generally more than 60%; oil tankers use about 30%. At the same time, the hull light weight is the main way to develop new energy-saving and environmentally-friendly ships. Lightweight may make the steel volume of a single ship in 2012 slightly lower than that in 2011. In 2012, the demand for steel for marine vessels will continue to grow. Under normal circumstances, the width of the ship's board used in rivers and ships is mainly 1500 mm to 1850 mm, accounting for about 60% of the total usage. According to incomplete statistics, in 2011, the completion of domestic riverboats was about 3 million DWT, and the demand for ship plates was about 1 million tons. It is expected that the demand for steel for ships in the river will continue to grow in the future.
In recent years, a number of ship segmentation factories invested and constructed by South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and other countries in China have been gradually put into operation. In order to reduce costs, these sub-segments mainly purchase ship plates in China. In 2011, the total demand for this part is expected to be around 1.6 million tons. In 2012, this demand will also grow steadily.
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