Many properties in the open market are booming in the property market in the "differentiation to go to stock"

On the 27th, the first batch of listings in the second phase of Yangliu County, located in Hangzhou East, opened, and 388 suites attracted more than 1400 customers and about 3,000 people. They finally sold out after 2 hours of official opening, becoming the property market in Hangzhou. The first "half daylight" property in the Year of the Monkey.
Such hot sales scenes also appeared in Shanghai. In Shanghai, a high-end real estate with an average price of 80,000 yuan per square meter, 352 sets of "10 million luxury homes" were robbed on the opening day. Popular cities such as Shenzhen and Nanjing have also seen the phenomenon of “leaked nights lining up”.
The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced the "70 large and medium-sized cities residential sales price changes" showed that the number of cities in January increased by 25 years, accounting for more than 30%, the highest increase is still leading the national house price for 14 months Shenzhen, which rose 52.7% year-on-year, followed Shanghai and Beijing with 21.4% and 11.3% respectively. A series of “policy red envelopes”, such as the down payment ratio of mortgage loans, the increase in the interest rate of the provident fund, and the business tax deduction of real estate transactions, gradually emerged. After the Spring Festival, there was a wave of “accelerated warming” in the property market.
The strength of the property market in the first-line and a few second-tier cities has affected the purchase of houses by some buyers. "This year, the property market destocking policy has been frequent, so that the family members who originally wanted to carefully select are not calm. The purchase plan can only be advanced." Mr. Chen, a citizen of Hangzhou, said that the ideal house that was originally fancy has recently killed a lot of " "Competitors", there are real estate directly said that they will raise prices, this kind of posture is worrying and it is a good time to miss the purchase.
Intermediary agency Hao Shi Huabang regional manager Liu Hui told reporters that the original month is still in the off-season, this year's recovery is very fast, the recent transaction volume has frequently refreshed a new high in the same period, many customers worry that the market outlook is bullish, eager to sign, indeed many landlords have been raised The price is generally nearly 5%. In Beijing and Shanghai, the overall market changes are also exerting pressure on the psychological supply and demand structure at the psychological level. For example, a second-hand housing in Shanghai, after the Spring Festival, the owner increased the price by 700,000 yuan, and some second-hand housing owners even ruined the price increase.
Yan Yuejin, research director of Yiju Think Tank, said that there are three reasons for the rapid rise of property market and housing prices in the near future. First, the loose purchase policy has enabled all types of buyers to enter the property market at a lower threshold. Market transactions are active and in turn push prices. rise. Second, the local high-quality supply began to appear insufficient inventory scale, further stimulating the price of a second-hand house to show a rapid upward trend. Third, it is affected by psychological expectations. Especially in the mentality of “buy up and not buy down”, there will be a part of “panic psychology”, which will push up the irrational rise of house prices.
Although there are irrational factors to a certain extent in the short term, in the industry's view, many hot cities in the current property market generally have strong demand support in the medium and long term. Zhang Hongwei, director of the same policy consulting research, pointed out that first-tier cities such as Beijing-Shanghai and Shenzhen have strong appeal to foreign residents due to their geographical location, industrial structure, educational environment and the superiority of public resources. The net inflow of population has been at a high level for a long time. The face of the property market constitutes significant support.
According to the data of the Yiju Research Institute, the current stock-to-sale ratio of the major hot cities is generally less than 10, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, 7 and Hefei and Nanjing, which have continued to strengthen in the near future. These have a short inventory cycle and a shortage of local supply. It is a normal phenomenon that the property market continues to be in a hot trend and prices are gradually rising.
Some insiders pointed out that there is also a "false and real" in the current "ups and downs" of the property market. "The price increase is divided into many cases. Some real estate needs are well supported. There are already 60% to 70% of the real estate. The remaining houses have the capital to raise prices to obtain higher profit margins, and appropriately slow down the pace." Hangzhou win-win Zhang Huifang, general manager of the organization, said that there are still some price increases that are only marketing activities. In fact, they are eager to go to inventory, and ultimately they have to look at the market to buy or not.
In fact, at the same time as the “spring is getting stronger” in the first-line and a few second-tier cities, many of the second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities are still “chilly”. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the prices of most third- and fourth-tier cities are still falling year on year. For example, Zhanjiang, Yi and Xiangyang, the three cities with the largest year-on-year decline in January, are all four-tier cities, and house prices have fallen by more than 3.5%. According to Zhang Hongwei's analysis, the third-tier cities are affected by the high inventory de-altitude cycle, and it is difficult for housing prices to rise. The possibility of further decline is still high.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that the current monitoring of new commercial residential inventory in 35 cities in the first, second and third lines is -12.9%, -3.9% and -0.8%, respectively, which indicates that the destocking effect of the third- and fourth-tier cities is far less than that of the first- and second-tier cities. For first-tier cities, the urgency of subsequent replenishment of stocks will increase. Otherwise, insufficient stocks will speed up the pace of rising house prices, and the task of destocking in third-tier cities is still arduous."
The industry believes that even if the “red envelope of the property market” continues to be given, “destocking in the process of increasing differentiation” is still the “main theme” of the 2016 property market. Ma Yingshu, Managing Director of CB Richard Ellis, said: “There is a long way to go to inventory in the second, third and fourth tier cities. If there is no demand, there will be little demand for home purchases due to favorable policies. When all the needs of a region add up, it is difficult to digest existing stocks. The problem of the supply side of the property market can only be optimized through self-adjustment and improvement."

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