Stable foreign trade policy will be added again during the year

Abstract In the face of the severe and complicated foreign trade situation, the stable foreign trade policy will be further increased during the year. The "Economic Information Daily" reporter recently learned from authoritative sources that the top management has started to deploy a survey of the current import and export situation, and is planning a new policy to stabilize foreign trade growth and foster new advantages in foreign trade competition.
In the face of the severe and complicated foreign trade situation, the stable foreign trade policy will be further increased during the year. The "Economic Information Daily" reporter recently learned from the authorities that the high-level officials have started to deploy the investigation of the current import and export situation, and brewing a new policy of stabilizing foreign trade growth and cultivating new advantages in foreign trade competition. The import of intermediate products and the export of high value-added products are expected. We welcome policy encouragement and relevant policies will be officially introduced during the year.

"With regard to the foreign trade situation this year, considering various factors at home and abroad, the situation is quite complicated and severe in terms of scale and growth rate, and it is not optimistic." The Ministry of Commerce said frankly. Statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that in January and February this year, exports fluctuated greatly, from 3.2% to 48.9%, while imports continued to fall, down 19.7% and 20.1% respectively. Foreign trade transcripts like this are not ideal.

The import and export data for March will be announced in the near future, and the study of the foreign trade situation and the observation policy window will usher in a critical time. Because the data in January and February are often affected by the Spring Festival, the industry generally believes that the comprehensive analysis of import and export data in the first quarter is more valuable. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, it is widely expected that foreign trade will improve in March but it is still optimistic.

“It is expected that exports will increase slightly in March, but considering the exchange rate factor, enterprises may not feel strong. Imports are still difficult to pick up. Overall, the first quarter is not optimistic.” Huo Jianguo, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, gave an economic reference. The newspaper reporter said. The agency also gave a similar judgment: Goldman Sachs Gao Hua China macro economist Song Yu predicted that exports will return to normal in March, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to fall to 0%. Imports have rebounded but still negative growth, and are expected to fall by 5. %. Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, predicted that in the international market, the price of imported goods fell sharply, and the low base of the same period last year, the growth rate of exports in March will drop to 12%, and imports will increase. The rapid decline has narrowed to around -15% from last month.

Compared to the lack of optimism, the company's feelings may be more direct. According to research from the Pearl River Delta, export enterprises have difficulties in production and operation and their profit margins have shrunk. According to the survey conducted by the Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, only 20% of foreign trade companies expect full-year orders to grow, and companies expecting orders to fall are as much as 40%.

"The foreign trade situation and the current economic situation are closely linked. The recovery of the manufacturing industry will drive the growth of foreign trade. However, at present, the downward pressure on the domestic economy has not yet been shaken off, and enterprises are facing difficulties in operating difficulties. This recovery process will Very slow," Huo Jianguo said.

The Ministry of Commerce, as the competent foreign trade department, has been under pressure. An insider from the Ministry of Commerce told reporters that the pressure to complete the 6% growth target set at the beginning of the year is still very high. On the one hand, it is continuing to implement the series of policies on stable foreign trade that the State Council has already issued, and on the other hand, it is also studying a series of new policies.

In this context, the "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from the authorities that the high-level has launched a survey of the current foreign trade situation, focusing on the current status and appeals of export enterprises from multiple levels. "Now it is mainly to investigate and touch the situation first. Of course, we will not rule out some measures that will help stabilize the growth of foreign trade. In the steady growth, we will also take into account the needs of foreign trade enterprises for transformation and upgrading, and foster new advantages in foreign trade competition." . The reporter further learned that the import of intermediate products and the export of high value-added products are expected to usher in policy encouragement. Relevant policies are already in the pipeline and will be officially introduced during the year.

In fact, this year, the State Council executive meeting has repeatedly called "import and export." Relevant policies cover various aspects such as improving the export tax rebate mechanism, improving port work, improving the customs clearance environment, and promoting international capacity cooperation.

"It can be seen that the national level attaches great importance to foreign trade." Song Wei, director of the International Trade Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the "Economic Information Daily" that since the beginning of this year, the state has successively introduced a series of measures to stabilize growth. If these policies are in place, then I believe it will take effect soon. From the current point of view, stabilizing foreign trade has become an important part of steady economic growth. The foreign trade policy can continue to be overweight. While stabilizing growth, it also serves the direction of optimization of foreign trade structure, helping to transform from “big progress and big out” to “excellent and superior”.

Huo Jianguo pointed out that China's foreign trade has entered the transition period of the new normal, and the transformation and upgrading of enterprises have emerged, and new competitive advantages are also taking shape. At the same time, we must also see that internal and external pressures are still very large, and some enterprises still have difficulty in survival. Now is the key moment to help the company optimize its competitive environment and improve its competitiveness.

In his view, on the one hand, this year has introduced some policies conducive to stabilizing foreign trade growth, and these policies will gradually show results. On the other hand, it is also possible to continue to introduce a policy of stabilizing foreign trade. Including optimizing the competitive environment, unified taxation, financing facilities, and improving administrative services. In addition, "we can also work hard to support imports, such as independent tax reduction, temporarily lower import tariffs on some products, and relax the import of technical equipment."

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