Forecasting the four major indicators of China's CNC tool grinding machine market in 2009, due to the existence of more uncertain factors, it is difficult to make accurate numerical predictions, and only make a simple judgment on its trend.
1, CNC tool grinding machine output value
Since September 2008, the decline in the sales value of CNC tool grinding machines has been increasing month by month, and the orders for new CNC tool grinding machines have been significantly reduced. It has been reported that by the end of 2008, the order contract for ordinary CNC tool grinders and economical CNC tool grinders fell by 45%, and the contract for medium and high-end CNC tool grinders fell by about 15%. At the beginning of 2009, the number of orders for CNC tool grinding machines was reduced, and it is said that the contract can generally last for about 6 months.
From the perspective of the user industry, although there are some demand highlights for the purchase of CNC tool grinding machines, the demand for CNC tool grinding machines in the two major user industries of machinery and automobiles in the first half of the year is still lacking in vitality, especially in coastal areas such as Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Export-oriented enterprises do not have much desire to purchase CNC tool grinding machines, and the demand for CNC tool grinding machines is unlikely to improve greatly. In the second half of the year, the effect of the policy of stimulating economic growth with the country gradually appeared. The demand for CNC tool grinding machines will rebound, but CNC tool grinding machines require a certain period from order to delivery. Therefore, in general, in 2009, except for the increase in the output value of heavy-duty CNC tool grinding machines, the sales value of all CNC tool grinding machines will continue to fall, which is likely to fall back to 10%~15% or even single-digit growth, but The probability of negative growth in the sales value of CNC tool grinding machines in the whole year is also relatively small.
2, CNC tool grinding machine imports
The import value of CNC tool grinding machines in 2009 is difficult to maintain the upward trend in 2008, due to the following factors, the impact will be reduced compared with last year: (1) domestic economic growth rate declines, for imported vertical cars, vertical lathes, double columns The demand for vertical CNC machine tool grinding machines has declined. The government has not introduced a policy of subsidizing the import of high-end CNC tool grinding machines as it did last year; (2) canceling the super-national treatment of foreign-invested enterprises in the import taxation of CNC tool grinding machines; (3) The import substitution capability of domestic CNC tool grinding machines has been enhanced, and internationally renowned manufacturers have set up more and more CNC tool grinding machines in China. (4) The reduction of mechanical and electrical products processing trade orders, naturally imported CNC tool grinding machines for processing trade. Also reduced accordingly. On the other hand, it should be noted that there is indeed a gap in the performance quality between the national products and the imported products in the field of high-end CNC tool grinding machines, and some varieties are still not available in China, and this year the world's CNC tool grinding machine market is in a downturn. Next, overseas CNC tool grinder manufacturers will strengthen their competition in the Chinese market. Based on various factors, it is estimated that the import value of CNC tool grinding machines in 2009 will fall within the range of 20%, and the amount will remain at a high level of more than 6 billion US dollars.
3. CNC tool grinding machine export volume
In the context of a marked slowdown in global economic growth and the recession of the three major economies of the United States, Japan and Europe, the rapid growth of the export of CNC tool grinding machines in China will be reversed. The reduction of export contracts since September 2008 is a symptom. However, with the support of the government to increase the export tax rebate rate, through the market diversification strategy and the improvement of export product structure, although the export value of CNC tool grinding machines in China may have negative growth in 2009, the decline is not too great.
4, CNC tool grinder consumption
Since the value of the output value and import and export value of the CNC tool grinding machine in 2009 cannot be accurately predicted, it is naturally difficult to predict the specific value of the consumption amount. However, it can be judged that the increase in the consumption of CNC tool grinders in 2009 will continue to fall and will be less than the increase in the output value of CNC tool grinders.
The development of the CNC tool grinding machine market is a wave-type development, that is to say, it has periodicity. In 2009, the Chinese CNC tool grinding machine market is in the downward phase of the cycle, and the further decline of the growth rate of major economic indicators is inevitable. The facts show that the biggest impact of this financial crisis is the low-end CNC tool grinding machine manufacturers with weak development capabilities. Today's market not only requires CNC tool grinder manufacturers to speed up the adjustment of product structure, but also requires a speeding up of the transformation of development methods, focusing on improving product performance, quality and strengthening services, and cultivating its own independent development capabilities, especially innovation capabilities. In this way, we can turn "crisis" into "machine" and gain new development opportunities.
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