Abstract The National Bureau of Statistics announced yesterday that the national economic performance data for November was mixed: after experiencing the decline at the beginning of the year, electricity consumption has increased for six consecutive months; the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods is also picking up. However, the growth rate of private fixed asset investment is still sluggish, foreign capital and east...
The National Bureau of Statistics announced yesterday that the national economic performance data for November was mixed: after experiencing the decline at the beginning of the year, electricity consumption has increased for six consecutive months; the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods is also picking up. However, the growth rate of private fixed asset investment is still sluggish, and foreign investment in private fixed assets in the northeast region is in a sharp decline. The “national advancement and retreat†in the field of fixed asset investment has been clearly reflected in the statistics.
Guojinmin retreat: the growth rate of private investment is rapidly declining <br> According to the National Bureau of Statistics data: In the first 11 months of this year, the national fixed asset investment was 53.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3%. This figure is significantly lower than the growth rate of more than 10% at the beginning of this year.
More worthy of attention than the overall growth rate decline is the “national advancement and retreat†in the field of fixed asset investment. In the first 11 months of this year, state-owned fixed assets investment increased by 20.2% year-on-year, and private investment only increased by 3.1%, much lower than the growth rate of about 10% in the same period last year. The chart below shows the monthly cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment based on the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China:
However, since the beginning of 2015, the growth rate of private investment has begun to decline and continues to be lower than the overall increase. By the beginning of this year, it has shown a cliff-like decline. In July this year, the cumulative growth rate was only 2.11%, setting a new low.
When the growth rate of private fixed assets investment was weak, the state-owned fixed assets investment still maintained a high growth rate of more than 20%. As a result of this change, the trend of rising private investment over the past decade has come to an abrupt end, and the proportion of state-owned investment has risen again. As of November this year, state-owned fixed assets investment accounted for 38.50% of the total social investment, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the end of 2014.
The hardest hit area: Northeast private investment plummeted foreign capital rapid brakes <br> The situation in Northeast China is still not optimistic, private investment continues to decline.
Statistics show that in the first 11 months of this year, the completion of private fixed assets investment in Northeast China was only 209.3 billion yuan, a 26% year-on-year decline, a drop of more than a quarter. Although this figure is lower than the 30% decline in the first half of this year, if the base is lower in the second half of last year, the decline is still high. The following picture shows the growth rate of private fixed assets investment in Northeast China according to the National Bureau of Statistics:
Another thing that needs special attention is that the downward trend of foreign investment in China's fixed asset investment growth is still continuing. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, the use of foreign capital in the fixed assets investment was 207.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year drop of 20.4%.
In fact, since 2013, foreign investment in fixed assets has continued to decrease. Statistics show that the amount of foreign investment in the first 11 months of 2013 was 392.9 billion yuan. In two years, it was reduced by 185.1 billion yuan.
The truth of the people? The steel industry's 97% production capacity is a private enterprise <br> The growth rate of private investment continues to decline, not only the market is at work; there may be some factors of administrative intervention in some places in the context of capacity.
Take the steel industry as an example. According to the overall requirements, this year we will reduce the crude steel production capacity by about 45 million tons, but the main force of the production capacity in many places is private enterprises.
Zhao Xizi, former deputy minister of the Ministry of Metallurgy and former honorary chairman of the Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce of the National Federation of Industry and Commerce, said at the China Steel Industry Chain Development Summit held recently: “Hebei has undertaken one-third of the national steel de-capacity task, but this year it is 16 million. Among the indicators of tons of capacity, 97% of the tasks of de-capacity in Hebei Province are completed by private enterprises. He said, "Now the production capacity is allocated to the cities and counties according to the national indicators. The county and city leaders then take the enterprises to cut them. One enterprise has two blast furnaces, one is cut down, and dozens of processes are gone. died"
Some excellent private enterprises are likely to be "mistaken" in the production capacity. Hu Yanping, chief analyst of China United Steel Network, described such a case study: a steel company with a capacity of 800,000 to 1 million tons in Hebei, whose products are mainly high-quality Angle Steel for electricity. 80% of the angle steel in the south was owned by this company. Supply, and has been in a good profit, but even such high-quality production capacity was cut off in this year's de-capacity process.
Earlier, Xia Nong, inspector of the Industry Coordination Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said: 2016 is the first year of steel production capacity, and 2017 will be the year of steel production capacity. This may also indicate that private enterprises, especially those with excess capacity, may be even more difficult next year.
2016 is nearing completion, and the accumulated data for November basically indicates the overall situation throughout the year. In 2017, can private investment recover? Is foreign capital still deterred? Can the Northeast bottom out? Everything is still unknown.
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